2021 NFL Draft Studs, Duds and Hidden in the Mud(s) : QB Edition

The NFL Draft is my all-time favorite sporting event. The perfect crossover between college stars looking to live out their dream and the NFL teams desperate to find a player who can help sell tickets.

This years quarterback class definitely has some guys who can sell tickets, but can they sell me?

I will place some of the quarterbacks entering the drafting into three categories.

Studs - Franchise QB. Face of the franchise. Print the jerseys!

Duds - Not what they seem to be. Why they will have a difficult time translating to the NFL. I'm not saying they won't eventually have a good career, just what they will have to work on.

Hidden in the Muds - These are players like Dak Prescott and the Jalen Hurts. The players nobody is talking about that can become a franchise QB.

STUDS:

Trevor Lawrence

At the beginning of the college football season a friend asked me "Who do you take #1 overall, Fields or Lawrence?". Without hesitation I said Lawrence, for this reason. 

If you miss on Lawrence, nobody blames you. 

6'6", 220 lbs. with some of the best arm talent in recent memory.

He's been pegged as a can't miss prospect since his freshman year at Clemson.

His play rarely waivered in college and neither did his success. Trevor will go to Jacksonville at #1 and it will be extremely interesting to see how he adjust from playing in a dynasty, to the playing on a team in need of a massive overhaul. 

Zach Wilson

Wilson was the most electrifying man in college football in 2020. Him and BYU became must-watch television down the stretch. Wilson's ability to combine his legs with his arm might be untouched in this class. 

While his stature doesn't match Big Ben, his scrambling and playmaking ability reminds me of the young Miami of Ohio gunslinger.

I expect Wilson to go top 5 in the draft and above of Ohio State's Justin Fields. Wilson already has features NFL teams are looking for in their franchise QB.

He isn't afraid to take a hit to make a throw but he is also aware not to take big hits while scrambling. He can throw on the run. He carries out his handoffs that sets up his play action. His deep balls are high arching, he allows his receivers to run under them and doesn't force it on a rope but he also has the arm strength to rip throws into tight windows.

I expect Wilson to go to 2nd overall to the Jets or to Atlanta at 4th overall. There is an outside chance he can go to Carolina or Detroit if they move up. 

Trey Lance

Lance had to be extremely disappointed when he heard that his 2020 season would only be one game due to Division 1-AA postponing their season to the spring. 

Lance is one of the best athletes at quarterback we have seen in the draft in years. He is the best running QB in this class without question.

My pro comparison for Lance is Dak Prescott. He shows supreme confidence and poise in the pocket and will be a threat with his legs in the red zone. Lance finishes all his runs falling forward just like Prescott and he has elite vision while rolling out. 

Lance should be drafted ahead of Justin Fields but due to his limited season I project Lance to go in the 8-15 pick range. Look for Detroit and New England to be possible landing spots for Lance.

DUDS:

Justin Fields

I know Ohio State fans. I know. 

Fields has the tools to be the best quarterback in this class. 

He beat Lawrence in the CFB Semi-Final game.

BUT..... I think Fields would benefit greatly from another season in Columbus. 

His #1 WR Chris Olave has already announced he is returning for another year. Fields can lead OSU to a national title and become a campus legend, work on his craft and should have the #1 pick locked up in 2022. 

Arm strength, accuracy, mobility all in his back pocket but he hasn't proven he can get to his second and third reads consistently. 

Ryan Day's offense is a great offense but Fields fell victim to his #1 option being open often and wouldn't have to work through his progression enough. So when his #1 target was covered, you can see Fields panic in the pocket.

I'm not saying Fields can't have a successful career but he'll need to sit behind a veteran for 1-2 years and learn if he comes out in 2021.  

Kyle Trask

My biggest issues with Trask is durability and inability to read the defense.

Just like Fields, Trask has the numbers, arm strength, size but he also meniscus issues.

The NFL is moving toward a league where a quarterback but be able to roll and scramble on a consistent basis. Trask's knee scares me when it comes to that.

If Trask can pass a physical with flying colors and looks explosive at the his pro day then teams can take a cautious look at him.

He is another QB who will NEED to sit behind an established starter and learn how to read defenses better.

He has a lot of highlights from his time in Gainesville but even in those highlights you can see him pass up wide open #2 and #3 options in order to force it to Kyle Pitts or Kadarius Toney.

Hidden in the MUD(s):

Mac Jones

Too many people are sleeping on Mac Jones! I'm seeing mock drafts with Jones going in the THIRD ROUND!!

People seem to think Jones had it easy because Alabama had three elite receivers and three offensive linemen on his team that will be drafted and because of that he really isn't that good.

What if its the other way around? What if Jones made them look good?

In my opinion Jones is the best deep ball thrower in this years class. He is sneaky fast but probably won't have a long running career in the NFL.

I think Mac Jones' perfect landing spot is Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers should feel confident in Brady playing at least one more season but they need to start planning for life after Brady. They have a great young core but they need a great young quarterback to go with it. 

Why not Jones?

Kenny Pickett

From a pure talent prospective, Pickett is probably last one this list.

So why do I like him so much? Toughness and smarts.

Pickett played almost the entire Boston College game on an injured ankle and still managed to throw for 266 yards and two touchdowns.

Pickett has surprising speed and mobility but I like that he knows when to use it. He doesn't look to scramble too early. His pocket presence is probably his best asset. 

Pickett will need time to grow but if he is in the right system, he can thrive. 

Kellen Mond

Kellen Mond is sort of the forgotten QB of this class. His Texas A&M Aggies arguably could've been the 4th team in the CFB Playoff.

Mond is a unique player in that he looks like he'd be a run first college QB (because he is fast enough to be) but he actually prefers to stand in the pocket and drop a dime.

The former Aggie gunslinger had two touchdowns in the 3rd quarter of the Reese's Senior Bowl and was named the game's MVP, which should help his draft rise exponentially 

Mond is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in this class. He had 46 starts in college. That experience and maturation has to have NFL teams interested.