Thursday, March 4, 2021

2021 NFL Draft Studs, Duds and Hidden in the Mud(s) : RB Edition

We're long removed from the age of the running back dominating the game and the draft. That doesn't mean they still can't be effective.

Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey (and somewhat Alvin Kamara this season) literally carry their entire offense and the running back free agent market on their back. 

Today we demand #1 RBs to do more than ever (run inside, outside, catch passes, pass block and even line up as a WR) and yet we don't want to pay them after their rookie deal.

It's a cold world out there for running backs, here are the 2021 running back Studs, Duds and hidden in the Mud(s), looking to change that landscape. 

STUDS:

Najee Harris


                                            Player Comp:
 (a more athletic) Derrick Henry

Let me just start with this.

NAJEE HARRIS IS THE BEST RUNNING BACK IN THIS CLASS AND POSSIBLY THE BEST COLLEGE RUNNING BACK I'VE EVER SEEN!!

Whew, sorry about that. Just had to get it out. He has the body of a Hummer, with a NASCAR engine and with the change of direction of a hoverboard. 

That might've been confusing. So I'll simplify it.

He has the build of AJ Dillon, with the speed of Aaron Jones and the agility of a Dalvin Cook. 

Oh almost forgot, he's the best receiving back in this glass and its not really close. 

He has it all. All the intangibles too. Vision, patience, no significant injuries in college, team player, etc.

Steelers, Dolphins, Cardinals and the Jets are all high probability landing spots for Harris in round one.

Travis Etienne

                                                    
                                                    Player Comp: Alvin Kamara

Harris is better the Etienne but there is a huge drop off from Etienne and the next back.

Etienne posses all the same intangibles and skills (besides power running) that Harris has.

Etienne reminds me so much of Alvin Kamara because he's so dynamic you just want to get the ball in his hands anyway possible. 

At Clemson, he excelled at outside zone runs, screens and dump off passes. 

One adjustment Etienne will have to make is being willing to run in the middle of the field. He often opts to bounce runs to the outside instead of getting upfield and getting yards. If he was afraid of ACC linebackers, he might have a tough transition to the NFL.

I expect Etienne to be a fringe first rounder, more likely a day two guy.

Tampa Bay could be an interesting spot as Brady loves his running backs who excel in the passing game. 

Javonte Williams


Player Comp: Chris Carson

Williams was the thunder in the thunder and lightning backfield at North Carolina in 2020. 

But he's so much more than a power back. He flashed a great understanding of how and where to get open in the passing game.

His speed often got overshadowed due to his counterpart Michael Carter's more top end speed and agility, but he definitely has the second gear needed at the NFL level.

Williams had 1,140 yards at UNC this year with 22 total touchdowns. 

I see Williams going in the late second round maybe even the third round and will be a plug-and-play type guy his rookie year.

DUDS:

Rhamondre Stevenson


Player Comp: Jamaal Williams

Stevenson worries me for a number of reasons.

First, production vs strength of opponent. The Big 12 features the worst defenses the Power Five has to offer and Stevenson's numbers didn't wow me.

He didn't eclipse 700 yards and only had 7 touchdowns in 11 games. 

Now the stat you'll hear in favor of Stevenson is that he averaged over six yards a carry and he averaged over 11 yards a reception, but two positives don't make up for an abundance of negatives.

Stevenson split time with two other running backs. Now I don't like RBs who are overused in college but I hate it more when they split serious playing time freshmen. 

I comped Stevenson to Williams because he will be serviceable but never a #1 running back.

Jaret Patterson


Player Comp: Jalen Richard

Adding Patterson to the Duds list hurt because he was so electric this season at Buffalo. 

So why won't Patterson succeed in the NFL? It's not so much that he won't succeed but that he won't be able to be a "do-it-all back" in the NFL. He won't be able to take 20 carries a game between the tackles.

You'll most likely see him on third downs and obvious passing situations. Similar to Tarik Cohen or Jalen Richard.

Patterson is talented but at his size he'll be a role player not a true RB1. I'm not taking him until at least the 4th round.

Hidden in the MUD(S):

Kylin Hill


Player Comp: Nyheim Hines

Kylin Hill, the SEC's best kept secret and the only reason Mississippi State won or put up a fight in any of their games. 

Hill opted out of the remainder of the 2020 season after three games to begin preparations for the 2021 NFL Draft.

In four seasons and 40 career games for the Bulldogs Hill accumilated 2,535 yards on 452 carries, 631 receiving yards on 67 catches and 22 career touchdowns.

Hill's best attribute moving on to the next level will be his versatility. He has the frame to take the lion share of carries and also the athletic ability to be a threat in the passing game.

I look for Hill to go somewhere in the fourth round a be a good complimentary back to an established RB1.

Kenneth Gainwell


Player Comp: Christian McCaffrey

While he didn't make the Studs list, Kenny Gainwell might be the most underrated player in this class.

The reason he won't be selected ahead of the three Studs is because he technically only has one year of production. Gainwell played in four games in 2018 and then was shut down so that Memphis could redshirt him.

He came back in 2019 with one of the best "freshman" seasons college football has ever seen. 1,459 rushing yards on 231 carries, 610 receiving yards on 51 catches and 16 touchdowns. 

Gainwell opted out of the 2020 citing concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.

What makes Gainwell so great? How did you comp him to CMC?

Simple. At Memphis. Gainwell was the best RB and best WR on the roster and it wasn't really close. Where ever he goes, he will be a swiss army knife that will keep defensive coordinators up at night.

See why below.





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